Bayes判别分析法与地震短临预测   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

王晓青  石绍先  丁香 《地震》1999,19(1):33-40

建立了一套完整的Bayes判别分析方法,并提出了明确的衡量综合预测结果所冒风险大小的风险代价比Kdn该方法可用于不同时间尺度的地震综合预测。选取云南地区1994～1996年的水氡观测资料,采用X2统计检验法识别前兆异常,利用Bayes判别分析方法对云南地区的强震活动性进行了内符检验和外推预测。在风险代价比Kdn取4的情况下,内符检验的R值可达0．54,外推时空占有率0．07,获得了满意的效果。  相似文献   

西秦岭北缘断裂带地震危险段的研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

康来迅  张新基  石雅镠  黄杏珍  李立武 《华南地震》1999,19(1):60-65

通过对西秦岭北缘断裂带全新世活动,地震活动和现今排气活动等特征的分析研究,认为本断裂带东段是地震危险段,未来发生强震（Ｍｓ≥６）的机率最大。  相似文献   

磁偏角（D）的数据处理   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

史勇军  孙燕萍 《内陆地震》1999,13(1):84-87

磁偏角观测数据既有东西方向的区别,又有数值大小的变化,由于喀仁台所处的地理纬度,其磁偏角方向偏东,观测工作就是要搞清磁照图上Ｄ与ＤＢ相对位置及Ｄ↑及Ｄ↓的物理意义;箭头表示磁场变化的向东偏的方向。在处理Ｄ观测数据时很容易发生混乱的错误,针对存在的问题,对数据处理展示了讨论。  相似文献   

新疆伽师地震的近场观测和对它的初步认识   总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6  

段永红  赖晓玲  李松林  张先康  杨健  石金虎 《地球物理学进展》1999,14(4):41-48

1998年5月～7月中国地震局物探中心在伽师震区布置了一个40×50km2的三维地震观测台网,布置了19台轻便地震仪,在二个月的时间里接收到近700个地震事件,并接收了十一个炮点的人工地震资料.对天然地震资料进行了精确定位,震级大于26的地震计算了震源机制解,并进行了讨论.最后对伽师10次6级以上地震的震中位置及能量的释放过程以及与坷坪断裂的关系进行了初步探讨  相似文献   

推广的半动态法及其在多级工程控制网精度评定中的应用     

施一民 《测绘学院学报》1993,(1)

为了合理地求定按附合网平差的网点坐标的实际精度,本文推广了半动态法,籍此可在首级网的基准下,统一求定顾及各级控制网测量误差影响精度的全部网点坐标的方差—协方差阵。本文所提出的方法适用于种种情况下的精度估计:等级数不受限制的平面、高程或三维网,本级网平差中的固定数据以及待估计的平差值函数可以包含不同级的网点,从而克服了半动态法原有的局限性。  相似文献   

石家庄地区反射率因子垂直廓线特征分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

赵瑞金  张沛源  史锐  董保华 《气象科技》2008,36(5):647-652

利用自动雨量计数据整理成的10 min一次的雨量资料和s波段多普勒天气雷达体积扫描强度数据,对石家庄地区2004～2007年4次天气过程的实时雷达反射率因子垂直廓线的特征进行了分析.结果表明:层状云和混合性降水反射率因子垂直廓线有明显的零度层亮带;短时强降水过程的反射率因子垂直廓线不存在零度层亮带.冰雹过程中反射率凼子垂直廓线变化较大,降雹前反射率因子的极大值在中上层,降雹发生时反射率因子的极大值高度下降,降雹后反射率因子的极大值减弱.降雪过程的反射率因子垂直廓线零度层亮带不明显.在石家庄西部山区,由于零度层亮带的影响.对层状云和混合性降水回波强度和降水量估计偏高.对短时强降水过程的地面降水估计用反射率因子垂直廓线的方法比最低仰角法更加准确,在均匀性降水中可较好地改善地面雨量估算结果,有利于在山区和无雨量计的地区判断强对流天气的发生、发展和估算降水量的大小.  相似文献   

Constraints on rupture speed of the 2001 <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript> 8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake by co-seismic surface rupture slip displacements based on the slip-weakening mechanism with frictional undershoot involved     

史保平  杨勇 《地震科学（英文版）》2008,21(3):219-232

With co-seismic surface rupture slip displacements provided by the field observation for the 2001 M_S8.1 West Kunlun Mountain Pass earthquake, this paper estimates the rupture speed on the main faulting segment with a long straight fault trace on the surface based on a simple slip-weakening rupture model, in which the frictional overshoot or undershoot are involved in consideration of energy partition during the earthquake faulting. In contrast to the study of Bouchon and Vallée, in which the rupture propagation along the main fault could exceed the local shear-wave speed, perhaps reach the P-wave speed on a certain section of fault, our results show that, under a slip-weakening assumption combined with a frictional undershoot (partial stress drop model), average rupture speed should be equal to or less than the Rayleigh wave speed with a high seismic radiation efficiency, which is consistent with the result derived by waveform inversion and the result estimated from source stress field. Associated with the surface rupture mechanism, such as partial stress drop (frictional undershoot) associated with the apparent stress, an alternative rupture mechanism based on the slip-weakening model has also been discussed.  相似文献   

经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法在合成近场强地震动中的联合运用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

王国新  史家平 《震灾防御技术》2008,3(3):292-301

本文采取将经验格林函数法与随机有限断层法相结合的方式,突出体现了各自方法的优点,通过经验格林函数法确定地震震源参数,用随机有限断层法计算参数、检验其合理性。利用1998年新疆阿图什M6．9级地震的肘L4．7级余震记录,合成了这次地震的最大余震Ms6．0级地震的加速度记录,并将合成的结果与实际记录在频域和时域做了对比,分析研究了地震动特征和这次最大余震的可能破裂特征。同时对经验格林函数法需进一步改进的方向进行了探讨。  相似文献   

Spatial and temporal variations of mercury in sediments from Victoria Harbour, Hong Kong   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Shi JB  Ip CC  Tang CW  Zhang G  Wu RS  Li XD 《Marine pollution bulletin》2007,54(4):480-485

  相似文献   

GPS time-series and its response to <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake     

Jing Shao-qun  Wu Yun  Qiao Xue-jun  Zhou Shuo-yu  Shi Shun-ying 《地震科学（英文版）》2005,18(4):419-426

In this paper, observation data in 25 GPS reference stations of China have been analyzed by calculating GPS position coordinate time-series with GIPSY. Result shows there is an obvious trend variation in such time-series. The trend variations of time series along the longitude and latitude coordinate reflect the motion of each position in the global-plate, in which the trend variation in the vertical direction reveals some large-scale construction information or reflects the local movement around the positions. The analysis also shows that such time-series have a variation cycle of nearly 1.02 a, but the reason still remains to be further studied. At the end of this paper, response of the time-series of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake was analyzed, and the seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 Kunlunshan earthquake, according to the time proceeding and the feature of anomaly, was divided into 3 phases—changes in blocks with forces, strain accumulation, quick accumulation and slow release of energy. At the initial stage of seismogenic process of M _S=8.1 earthquake and at the imminent earthquake, coseismic process as well as during the post earthquake recovery, anomaly in vertical direction is always in a majority. The anomalous movement in vertical direction at the initial stage resulted in a blocking between faults, while at the middle stage of seismogenic process, the differential movement between blocks are in a majority, which is the major reason causing energy accumulating at the blocking stage of faults.  相似文献